The Teams to Buy and Sell Heading Into NFL Week 3
After Week 2, it’s time to assess which teams are worth investing in.
Every week, the NFL hivemind churns out bold claims about the value of certain teams, often fueled by narratives steeped in confirmation bias. But how do you separate the hype from reality?
In this guide, we’ll pinpoint which teams are worth buying into and which you should sell off. From struggling contenders like the Cincinnati Bengals to the surprisingly strong Minnesota Vikings, we’ll analyze team trajectories, key injuries, and upcoming matchups to help you make informed decisions for the weeks ahead.
Buy: Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)
The Bengals are notorious for slow starts and, at 0-2, their 2024 campaign is on a similar path. With a home loss to the New England Patriots, and a heartbreaker on the road in Kansas City, they’ve dug themselves into a hole.
Despite the predicament, their two losses feel and look worse than they truly are. The Patriots, contrary to preseason projections, aren’t the bottom-feeder they were projected to be. If it weren’t for a goal line fumble by Bengals' tight end Tanner Hudson in the second quarter of Week 1, that game could’ve looked vastly different.
Even more, the Bengals outplayed the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 2, essentially losing the game on a controversial, 4th and 16 pass interference call.
The biggest worries for the Bengals are injuries at defensive tackle, whether Tee Higgins will be sharp after returning from injury, and the ongoing health of Joe Burrow.
The Bengals are a clear buy for three reasons. First, they benefit from one of the easiest remaining schedules, ranking 28th in SOS, with upcoming games against the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, before playing the Raiders, Titans and Broncos later in the year. Second, the Baltimore Ravens (also 0-2), their primary AFC North rival, have tough upcoming matchups. Lastly, Cincinnati looked great on the road in Kansas City. Not only did Joe Burrow and the passing game hum, but the CIN defense held Patrick Mahomes to the fewest passing yards of his career, with just 151. We'll buy the trend that Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow will figure this out as they have in years past.
Sell: Minnesota Vikings (2-0)
The Vikings, led by Sam Darnold, have surprised many with their strong start, including an unexpected stomping of the 49ers. However, there are reasons to be cautious to buying into Minnesota.
The first problem is their quarterback situation. Sam Darnold has looked as good as ever, posting an average passer rating of 111.7. Though he’s looked polished, the two performances came against the Giants (arguably the second-worst team in the league) and his former team the 49ers who haven’t won a game in Minnesota since December 1992. On top of that, as the 49ers’ backup last season, Darnold likely benefitted from a comfortability knowing the Niners defense. With guys like Darnold, there will always be speculation until he does it over a long stretch of games. Luckily, he has the whole season ahead of him to prove us wrong.
Another reason to halt the breaks on the Vikings train is the health concerns regarding Justin Jefferson. After his 97-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter of Week 2, Jefferson was helped off the field with a leg injury in the second half. Though Vikings’ head coach Kevin O’Connell shared that the injury is not serious, keep an eye on if it affects Justin when he returns.
Look, the Vikings still have a shot at a Wild Card spot if they take advantage of their middling strength of schedule. But the NFC North is a tough division, and road games at Lambeau Field, Soldier Stadium and Ford Field are never short tasks. On top of those divisional games, the Vikings will play the Texans in Week 3 and will face the tough remaining NFC West teams this year.
If Jefferson can remain healthy, the defense continues its dominance and T.J. Hockenson becomes productive post-injury, this team could find themselves in a Wild Card spot. Until then, they’re overvalued to us.
Hold: Baltimore Ravens (0-2)
The Ravens have started the season similar to the Bengals. Both teams lost a heartbreaker to Kansas City and a clunker to a lesser team at home.
Unlike the Bengals, the Ravens are in for a rough next few weeks, first rolling into Dallas , before hosting the Bills then finally traveling to Cincy for Week 5. The Ravens could easily start 1-4. So what’s wrong in Baltimore? Is it fixable?
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken continues to overly pass the ball. Even though the Ravens destroyed the Raiders on the ground, outrushing them 151 to 27 yards on the day, Lamar threw 38 times. In Week 1 it was even worse, with Lamar throwing 41 times. With Lamar and Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Ravens need to spam the run.
On the other side of the ball, the Ravens defense was confusing. While the first half they held the Raiders to just 6 points, the last Raider series saw 20 points, 12 first downs and 172 yards. And with the departures of Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, the defense have already given up 25+ twice through two weeks — something they only did twice all of last season.
So why is not time to panic? Both of their losses, while devastating, were toss-ups. Lamar is still the reigning MVP and if they commit to the run, this team can bulldoze almost anyone in the league. Also, Lamar has owned their biggest division rival, the Bengals, going 8-2 in his career. While they won’t be as dominant as last season, they can turn things around.
Though we lean towards a buy, we’d hold on the Ravens stock until after Week 5 when they play Cincinnati. Their next three games make or break their season.
Sell: New Orleans Saints (2-0)
When New Orleans curb stomped the Carolina Panthers 47-10 in Week 1, nobody was talking about New Orleans being a legit contender. Rather, the story was focused on Bryce Young’s struggles and whether or not the Panthers could go 0-17. But after the Saints rolled into Dallas and put up 44 on the Cowboys, the narrative shifted. Especially after seeing how Dallas manhandled the Browns in Week 1, people are now asking the question: Are the Saints for real?
Klint Kubiaks’ offense has been explosive, with Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara both showing signs of resurgences. In a Shanahanesque motion offense, Kubiak is using Kamara in a similar capacity to Christian McCaffrey, utilizing his ability to run against the zone and catch the ball. Plus with Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave on the outside, this offense looks like it will be elite all year long.
However, as we saw with the Miami Dolphins last year, early-season explosive offenses don’t always mature well as the year goes on. Especially with a lower-tier defense, it’s hard to expect the Saints to be explosive week after week.
We like the Saints so far this year, but of all 32 teams, they’re currently the most overrated. If you’re a believer in the Dolphins, you also should consider buying into the Saints. While I’m steering more towards a rating of Hold, their vast overvaluation across the media forces me to sell on the Saints before Week 3.
